| 摘要: |
| 使用非参数的核密度估计测算中国省域间人均GDP分布的动态发展趋势,并进一步对导致这种趋势下的产业成因进行估算,可明显看出:第一,省域间的人均GDP分布出现“穷者越穷,富者恒富”的两极分化格局,且大多数省域的发展陷于“贫困化陷阱”状态;第二,两极分化格局的产业分解显示,“极化”主要表现在第二、三产业在省域间发展的差距,而第一产业在省域间的发展基本不存在差距;第三,第二产业在省域间的差距中起着最重要的作用,第三产业次之,而第一产业在省域间的分布有助于省域间人均GDP分布的趋同。 |
| 关键词: 极化 核密度估计 趋同 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:F061.3 |
| 基金项目: |
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| Dynamic Evolution and the Industrial Reasons for "the Poor Getting Poorer, and the Rich Richer":1978-2006 |
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YANG Jianhong, SUN Shuyu
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(Jiangsu Administration Institute, Nanjing 210004, China)
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| Abstract: |
| This paper tries to adopt the kernel density function to study convergence in Chinese provinces, and then search the industrial reasons of the results. We find that, firstly, the data show that the poor are getting poorer and the rich richer, with the middle class vanishing; secondly, the phenomenon of the polarization is mainly due to the disparities in secondary industry and tertiary industry among all provinces, and the primary industry is convergence; finally, after China has formally entered the WTO, the disparity in secondary industry has been getting weaker, but the disparity in tertiary industry has been getting enlarged and substituting this weakness. |
| Key words: polarization the kernel density function convergence |
