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全球石油行业竞争性并购溢价与价值不确定性研究
王震1,王天然2
(1.中国石油大学 中国能源战略研究院,北京 102249;2.中国石油大学 工商管理学院,北京 102249)
摘要:
竞争性报价是影响并购收益的关键因素之一,激烈的竞价会大大提高支付溢价水平,降低并购成功的可能性。本文以竞争性报价过程中的并购收益为出发点,以全球石油行业30年的竞争性并购案件为样本,研究验证信息不对称以及竞购公司存在相关性的条件下并购收益水平的特征。研究表明,竞购公司相关性与并购收益之间存在显著的U型关系;并购收益与目标公司价值不确定性之间存在正相关关系。另外,后手公司报价水平也与目标公司价值不确定性呈正相关关系。研究结论改变了传统的并购收益随竞争公司相关性增大而增大的观念,对收购方和目标公司的策略制定具有参考价值。
关键词:  石油行业  竞争性并购  支付溢价  价值不确定性  行业相关性
DOI:
分类号:F407.22
基金项目:教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目(09JZD0038)
Offer Premium and Value Uncertainty of Global Petroleum Industry in Competitive M & A Biddings
WANG Zhen1, WANG Tianran2
(1.Academy of Chinese Energy Strategy, China University of Petroleum, Beijing 102249, China;2.School of Business Administration, China University of Petroleum, Beijing 102249, China)
Abstract:
Competitive bidding is one of the factors that influence merger returns. Fierce competition among bidders will result in higher offer premiums while reducing the possibility of bidding success. This paper, focusing on the level of merger returns in competing mergers and acquisitions, sampled competitive M & A activities worldwide in the oil and gas industry for the past three decades, testing offer premium levels under conditions of information asymmetry and heterogeneity of competing bidders. Empirical results showed a significant U shape relationship between merger return and heterogeneity of bidding competitors. There is also a proved positive relationship between offer premium and value uncertainty of the target company. Meanwhile, offer premium of competing bidder also shows a positive relationship with value uncertainty of the target company. The results changed the old findings that merger returns were positively related to heterogeneity of bidding competitors. The results would make sense for both sides of M & A when making their bidding strategies.
Key words:  global petroleum industry  competitive bidding  offer premium  value uncertainty  industry heterogeneity