| 摘要: |
| 科技发展投资、固定资产投资、非化石能源生产投资是当前中国经济发展、能源结构调整的重要依托,在当前经济发展和能源结构调整约束下,基于Johansen-Juselius协整检验构建C-D生产函数,在此基础上构建科技发展投资、固定资产投资、非化石能源生产投资的投资决策模型,基于1995—2014年数据及中国《十三五规划》提出的能源结构和经济增长目标,对中国政府的投资决策问题进行研究。结果显示:在“十三五”期间经济发展和能源结构约束下,中国非化石能源产量应至少保持年均7.04％的复合增长率,非化石能源生产投资应至少保持年均9.98％的复合增长率;在保持2014年全社会固定资产投资比重条件下,“十三五”期间中国科技投资应至少保持年均7.94％的复合增长率。提高科技发展投资和提高全社会固定资产投资比重均有助于实现经济发展目标,但提高科技发展投资水平对经济发展的边际效用远高于全社会固定资产投资比重,科技发展投资对全社会固定资产投资有较好的替代效用。 |
| 关键词: 能源结构调整 科技发展 非化石能源生产 投资决策路径 |
| DOI：10.13216/j.cnki.upcjess.2017.02.0002 |
| 分类号:F124 |
| 基金项目:山东省重点研发计划项目(2015GGX109004);山东省自然科学基金项目(ZR2015GM005);山东省软科学研究计划项目(2016RKE28010) |
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| Study on Investment Decision Problem of Chinese Government with Energy Structure Adjustment and Economic Development Constraints |
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WANG Xinmin, DING Hao
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(School of Economics and Management, China University of Petroleum, Qingdao, Shandong 266580, China)
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| Abstract: |
| Technology development, fixed assets and non-fossil energy investments play key roles in Chinese economic development and energy structure adjustment. With current economic development and energy structure adjustment constraints, C-D productivity function is established based on Johansen-Juselius test, and the investment decision model of technology development and non-fossil energy production is built. With the data from 1995-2014, the investment decision problem with energy structure constraints and economic development goal in China is studied. The results show that non-fossil energy production should maintain the compound growth rate of 7.04% per year in the period of 2015-2020, and investment on non-fossil energy production should maintain the compound growth rate of 9.98% at least. At the rate of 2014 in total investment in fixed assets, technology investment in China should keep the compound growth rate of no less than 7.94%. Both the enhancement of technology investment and total investment rate in fixed assets can help to achieve the economic development goal, however, marginal utility to economic development in enhancing the technology investment level is greater than total investment rate in fixed assets. Technology investment can substitute effectively the investment in fixed assets during the process of economy. |
| Key words: energy structure adjustment technology development non-fossil energy production investment decision path |
