| 摘要: |
| 世界石油市场自2014年下半年价格出现了断崖式下跌,虽经沙特与俄罗斯领导的限产保价联盟经过9个多月的努力,布伦特油价也仅为下跌前的一半。新能源发展以及能源系统演进,出现了关于石油天然气工业的灾变观点——石油行业行将快速没落,石油工业不是储量耗尽,而是需求耗尽。观察布伦特油价趋势,2017年8月布伦特原油价格的数据表明,在多重影响下油价是随机游走态势。从需求层面讲,在全球能源需求连续3年弱增长1％,仅是过去10年平均增长率一半的背景下,2016年全球石油消费强势增长1.6％,连续2年高于10年平均增长速度;虽然OECD国家2005年达到石油需求高峰,但并未改变全球石油需求持续增长的趋势。全球石油需求高峰将出现在2035年,峰值需求52.85亿吨,比2016年绝对增加8.67亿吨。值得注意的是,2035年仅是达到石油需求高峰,而不是“需求用完”。禁售燃油汽车规划将派生巨大天然气需求。从供应层面讲,“限产联盟”策略不一、执行不力是低迷油价的一个解释;而助推供应、改变世界石油生产消费格局的美国页岩革命,才是诠释世界石油市场供过于求的密钥。世界石油工业已进入供应宽松的时代。 |
| 关键词: 石油价格 随机游走 能源重构 需求用完 |
| DOI：10.13216/j.cnki.upcjess.2017.06.0001 |
| 分类号:F416.22 |
| 基金项目: |
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| Oil Price, Basic Supply & Demand and Future Need |
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ZHANG Yi,WANG Jiexiang,ZHANG Chuanping
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(School of Petroleum Engineering, China University of Petroleum, Qingdao, Shandong 266580, China)
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| Abstract: |
| Crude oil price was collapsed in world oil market with oversupply since the second half of 2014. With the endeavor of 'Cut Output Boosting Price Alliance ' over 9 months, Brent oil price was just above the half level of that before the collapse. With the development of new energy industry and evolving of energy system, there has arisen the view that petroleum industry is faced with disastrous changes and that the needs for oil would come to the end. In terms of Brent oil price trend, Brent oil price data on August in 2017 show global oil price motion was a Random Walk, among a variety of effecting factors. In terms of oil consumption, under the background in which the global energy need weakly has increased by 1% in 3consecutive years, just the half of the average among the past 10 years, global oil consumption strongly has increased by 1.6%, high above the average of the past 10 years. Although the OECD 's oil need reached the peak in 2005, the consecutive increasing trend of global oil need has never changed. The global oil need peak would be arisen in the year of 2035, and the need would be 5.285 billion tons, an increase of 0.867 billion tons than in 2016. It must be noted that global oil need peak would be arisen in 2035 does not mean that demand of oil & gas would end up. Moreover, banning automobile fueled with oil would make a large volume of gas be consumed. From oil supplying, the paradox strategy & poor implementation of 'Cut Output Boosting Price Alliance can explain the embarrassed oil prices. The U.S. shale revolution which promoted the supply and changed global production-consumption pattern is the key to explain the oversupply in the world oil market. World oil market started to be a sufficient market. |
| Key words: crude oil price Random Walk energy evolving demand end up |
