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近年国际天然气市场回顾及2025年展望
陈蕊,白桦
(中国石油集团经济技术研究院 天然气市场研究所,北京 100724)
摘要:
国际天然气市场消费在经历了两年低速发展后,于2018年呈现强劲反弹,主要驱动力为北美和亚太。产量稳增使市场供需持续宽松,但较过去几年供需差缩小,区域市场价格受不同因素影响呈不同幅度上扬。全球天然气贸易量持续增长,其中LNG贸易为主要拉动力,贸易灵活度持续上升。预计未来几年,市场供需仍趋宽松,价格在未来一年内受区域市场需求下滑、新LNG液化项目投产等因素影响维持低位,2020年后开始回升。
关键词:  天然气  供需  LNG  液化项目
DOI:10.13216/j.cnki.upcjess.2019.05.0001
分类号:F416.22
基金项目:
Review of Global Natural Gas Market in Recent Years and Prospects for 2025
CHEN Rui, BAI Hua
(Natural Gas Market Department, Research Institute of Economics and Technology CNPC, Beijing 100724, China)
Abstract:
After two years of low-speed development, international natural gas market consumption rebounded strongly in 2018, mainly driven by North America and Asia-Pacific. The steady increase of production has made the market supply and demand continue to be loose, but the gap between supply and demand has narrowed compared with the past few years, and the regional market prices have risen by different margins under the influence of different factors. Global natural gas trade continues to grow, with LNG trade as the main driving force and trade flexibility improved. It is expected that in the next three years, the supply and demand of gas market will remain loose. Prices will keep in low level in the next year due to the decline of regional market demand and the launch of new LNG liquefaction projects. Prices will begin to rise after 2020.
Key words:  natural gas  supply and demand  LNG  liquefaction project