| 摘要: |
| 为准确把握产业结构升级对就业的影响,及时调整就业政策,基于黄河三角洲高效生态经济区的滨州市和东营市1995—2012 年有关数据,运用协整回归和门限回归方法对该区域进行实证分析表明,滨州市的产业结构转换系数与第三产业从业人员人数之间不仅存在长期均衡关系,而且存在门限效应,即滨州市的产业结构调整系数变动较小( 门限值小于-081)时,产业结构升级对就业影响并不明显;当该系数变动较大(门限值大于-081)时,产业结构升级对就业具有显著影响。而东营市的第三产业产值比重与第三产业就业比重存在长期均衡关系,不存在门限效应。因此,就业政策应根据区域内不同地区产业结构升级所处的区间以及调整的幅度差异等分别进行相应调整。 |
| 关键词: 黄河三角洲 产业结构 就业 协整回归 门限效应 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:F127 |
| 文献标识码:A |
| 基金项目:教育部人文社会科学研究项目(09YJC840005);山东省社科规划项目(11DSHZ01);滨州学院博士科研启动项目(2008Y09);滨州学院科研基金重大项目(2011ZDW02) |
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| Threshold Effect of the Impact of Industrial Structure Upgrading on Employment: Empirical Analysis of the Yellow River Delta High-Efficiency Economic Zone |
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DONG Fang, ZHOU Jiangtao
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Department of Economic Management, Research Center of the Yellow River Delta Economy,Binzhou University, Binzhou, Shandong 256603, China
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| Abstract: |
| To accurately master the impact of industrial structure upgrading on employment and adjust regional employment policy, based on time series data 1995 -2012 of Binzhou and Dongying, using linear cointegration and threshold cointegration regression analysis, this paper makes an empirical study of threshold effect of the impact of industrial structure upgrading on employment in the Yellow River Delta High-efficiency Economic Zone. The empirical results show there is a stable equilibrium relation between transformational coefficient of industrial structure and the number of the workers in the tertiary industry in the long run in Binzhou, whats more, there is threshold effect. When transformational coefficient of industrial structure is -0. 81 lower than the threshold value, the impact is not obvious while transformational coefficient of industrial structure is -0. 81 higher, the impact is obvious. While there is a stable equilibrium relation between the tertiary industry proportion and the employment proportion of the tertiary industry in the long run in Dongying, and there is not threshold effect. Therefore, employment policy should be adjusted according to the stage of the regional
industrial structure upgrading and the adjustment difference. |
| Key words: the Yellow River Delta industrial structure employment cointegration regression threshold effect |
