| 摘要: |
| 近年来,作为老工业基地的东北地区由于高耗能的重工业比重较大,经济发展过度依赖第二产业,在经济高速发展的同时,碳排放量也在逐年增加,成为全国碳排放的重灾区。产业结构不合理问题已经成为制约该区域低碳经济发展的主要瓶颈。采用协整分析,基于东北地区1995—2012年碳排放强度和产业结构的时间序列数据,对东北地区碳排放与产业结构的关系进行实证研究,得出东北地区碳排放与产业结构存在长期均衡关系,且第二产业发展是碳排放量增加的主要原因。东北地区应降低第二产业比重,大力发展第三产业和绿色农业;开发利用低碳技术,实现设备低碳升级;提高新型能源替代率,改变化石能源为主的能源消耗格局。 |
| 关键词: 东北 碳排放 产业结构 能源结构 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:X321 |
| 基金项目:国家社科基金一般项目(12BJY076);黑龙江省教育厅人文社会科学研究项目(12522001) |
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| The Empirical Study of Relations Between Carbon Emissions and Industrial Structure in the Northeast Area: Based on Data Analysis of 1995-2012 |
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LI Shaoping, HAO Jianfang, WANG Jiashan
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(Institute of Petroleum Economy and Management, Northeast Petroleum University, Daqing, Heilongjiang 163318, China)
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| Abstract: |
| In recent years, with the rapid development of economy, as old industrial base, the northeast area has become the country 's major carbon emissions region because the high energy consumption of heavy industry accounts for a larger proportion and the economic development relies on the second industry, as a result, the carbon emissions are also increasing year by year, and the industrial structure problems seriously restricted the economic development of the northeast area. This paper analyzes the relationship between carbon emissions and industrial structure in the northeast area based on the co-integration analysis and the series data of carbon emissions intensity and the industrial structure from 1995 to 2012. There is a long-term equilibrium relationship between carbon emissions and industrial structure in the northeast area and the development of the second industry is the main reason for the increase of carbon emissions. Finally, on the basis of the empirical analysis, it puts forward measures and suggestions mainly including reducing the proportion of second industry, developing the third industry and green agriculture, developing and making use of the low carbon technology, upgrading low carbon equipment, improving the new energy substitution rate, and changing the fuel consumption pattern based fossil energy. |
| Key words: the northeast area carbon emission industrial structure energy structure |
