| 摘要: |
| 天然气供应安全是能源安全的重要组成部分,通过选取进口安全、国内供应、需求安全三个层面13项指标,构建我国进口天然气供应安全预警指标体系。利用主成分分析和K-means聚类分析建立预警模型,并对我国进口天然气供应安全状况进行分析。主成分分析结果表明,天然气对外依存度、消费占比、供需比、运输量、进口集中度这5项指标对我国进口天然气供应安全的影响较大。聚类分析结果显示,2006—2016年我国进口天然气供应安全经历了三种状态:安全状态(2006—2008年)、关注状态(2009—2011年)和警戒状态(2012—2016年)。为确保我国进口天然气供应安全,应当采取优化进口来源,坚持多元化进口;合理规划天然气进口量,降低运输风险；增加天然气供给,正确引导天然气消费等对策。 |
| 关键词: 进口天然气 供应安全 指标体系 主成分分析 K-means聚类分析 预警 |
| DOI：10.13216/j.cnki.upcjess.2018.04.0001 |
| 分类号:F407.22 |
| 基金项目:国家社会科学基金项目( 12BJY075) ;中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(R1506027B) |
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| Study on Early Warning for Imported Natural Gas Supply Security in China |
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LI Hongxun, WU Fudan
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(School of Economics and Management,China University of Petroleum(East China),Qingdao,Shandong 266580,China)
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| Abstract: |
| Natural gas supply security is an important part of energy security. This paper aims to construct the early warning index system of imported natural gas supply security in China by selecting the thirteen indicators of import, domestic supply and demand. The principal component analysis (PCA) and the K-means clustering method are used to establish China 's imported natural gas supply safety early warning model, then the security status of China 's imported natural gas supply is analyzed. The results of PCA show that the five indicators including the natural gas import concentration, external dependence, volume of transportation, consumption ratio, supply and demand ratio are the major impact factors of China 's imports of natural gas supply security.The K-means clustering analysis shows that China 's imports of natural gas supply security totally experienced three statuses during 2006—2016, that is:safety status (2006—2008), attention status (2009—2011) and alert status (2012—2016). Finally, in order to ensure the supply security of imported natural gas in China, some suggestions are given as follows, that is, to optimize the sources of imports and adhere to diversified imports, to rationally plan natural gas import volume and reduce transportation risk,and to increase the supply of natural gas and correctly guide natural gasconsumption. |
| Key words: imported natural gas supply safety index system principal component analysis K-means clustering analysis early warning |
