| 摘要: |
| 基于2012年社会核算矩阵(SAM),采用增加碳关税模块的可计算一般均衡模型(CGE),构建测算我国受碳关税政策影响的42个部门(含4个化石能源生产部门和1个电力能源生产部门)的动态递归CGE模型,分析在不同税率情景下碳关税政策对我国出口商品结构、行业产出结构、能源结构以及碳排放的动态影响。研究结果表明:首先,征收碳关税会改变我国出口商品结构,导致大部分行业出口占比呈现下降趋势,尤其是能源密集型商品出口占比。其次,整体而言,我国行业产出结构受碳关税的影响不明显,除个别部门,对大部分行业影响不大。大部分高耗能、高污染行业并没有因征收碳关税而导致产出占比明显下降,因此,碳关税并不具有优化产业结构的作用。再次,碳关税对能源结构存在一定的影响,虽其差异性较大,但对大部分行业都造成负向冲击,明显降低煤炭石油能源的生产投入量,对改善环境起到一定的促进作用。最后,碳关税对碳强度和碳排放均起到抑制作用,且碳关税税率越高,对碳排放和碳强度的抑制作用越明显。 |
| 关键词: 碳关税 可计算一般均衡模型 出口商品结构 能源结构 碳减排 |
| DOI：10.13216/j.cnki.upcjess.2018.06.0003 |
| 分类号:F224;F205 |
| 基金项目:国家优秀青年基金项目(71622011); 国家重点研究计划重点专项项目(2016YFF0204405) |
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| The Impact of Carbon Tariff Policy Based on Dynamic CGE Model |
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TANG Ling, ZHANG Liang, YU Le 'an
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(School of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Chemical Technology, Beijing 100029, China)
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| Abstract: |
| Based on the 2012 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM), and using the Computable General Equilibrium(CGE) Model, this paper builds the dynamic recursive CGE model of 42 sectors (including 4 fossil energy production departments and 1 electric production department) that measure the impact of China 's carbon tariff policy. The dynamic impact of carbon tariff policies on China 's export commodity structure, industry output structure, energy structure and carbon emissions under different tax rate scenario is analyzed.The results show that:first, the imposition of carbon tariffs will change the structure of China 's export commodities, resulting in a decline in the proportion of exports in most industries, especially the proportion of energy-intensive exports.Second, on the whole,China 's industry output structure is not significantly affected by carbon tariffs, and except some sectors, most industries are little affected. Most high-energy, high-pollution industries do not have a significant decline in the proportion of output due to carbon tariffs. Therefore, carbon tariffs do not have the role of optimizing the industrial structure.Third, carbon tariffs have a certain impact on the energy structure, and the effect on each industry is different. In particular, carbon tariffs cause negative impacts on most industries, but they can significantly reduce the production input of coal petroleum energy, and will play a certain role in promoting the environment. Finally, carbon tariffs have an inhibitory effect on both carbon intensity and carbon emissions, and the higher the carbon tariff rate, the more pronounced the inhibition of carbon emissions and carbon intensity. |
| Key words: carbon tariff policy computable general equilibrium export commodity structure energy structure carbon emission |
