| 摘要: |
| 为保障国家石油安全,结合中国的实际情况,构建国际油价波动背景下中国石油安全评价指标体系,确定了供给、消费、贸易、地缘政治及生态5个基本指标及15个具体指标,并运用四元集成及熵技术模型对中国1996—2017年石油安全状况进行评价。评价结果显示:2011—2013年石油安全状态处于“较危险”状态,2014—2017年石油安全状态恢复至“一般”状态。 |
| 关键词: 油价波动 石油安全评价 四元集成及熵技术模型 |
| DOI：10.13216/j.cnki.upcjess.2018.06.0004 |
| 分类号:F407.22 |
| 基金项目:国家社会科学基金项目(14BJL045);山东省社会科学规划项目和山东社会科学院创新工程项目(17CCXJ07);山东省软科学研究项目(2017RKE28009);青岛社会科学规划项目(QDSKL1801036) |
|
| Research on Petroleum Security Evaluation in China under the Background of International Oil Price Fluctuation |
|
LIU Haomin, ZHANG Zaixu
|
|
(School of Economics and Management, China University of Petroleum(East China), Qingdao, Shandong 266580, China)
|
| Abstract: |
| In order to guarantee the national petroleum security, this paper establishes the evaluation index system of petroleum security in China under the background of international oil price fluctuation,which accords with the actual situation in China. It determines 5 basic indexes of supply, consumption, trade, geopolitics, ecology and 15 specific indexes, and applies the DHGF and entropy technology model to evaluate China 's petroleum security situation from 1996 to 2017. |
| Key words: oil price fluctuation petroleum security evaluation DHGF and entropy technology model |
