| 摘要: |
| 天然气已成为我国的主体能源之一,其供应的安全性、稳定性和持续性关乎国家的能源安全。天然气供给不足、供需缺口拉大、对外依存度提升等都会影响到天然气的稳定和可持续供应。基于PSR模型构建了我国天然气进口安全评价体系,运用熵权法确定各指标权重,通过TOPSIS法对我国天然气总体进口安全水平进行评价;借助灰色关联分析法得到影响我国天然气进口安全的主要因素。结果表明:(1)2006—2017年我国天然气进口安全水平以2011年为拐点大致呈现“U型”,总体处于较不安全和临界安全的状态;(2)从三个层面的相关指标来看,关联度影响最大的分别为地缘政治风险、LNG进口价格、天然气的储备水平。基于评价结果,提出如下建议:优化天然气进口来源,降低地缘政治风险;构建亚太地区天然气定价机制,提升天然气进口话语权;加大天然气勘探开发投资,提高国内天然气产量;建立健全天然气战略储备,提升天然气储备水平。 |
| 关键词: PSR模型 天然气进口安全评价 熵权TOPSIS法 灰色关联分析 |
| DOI：10.13216/j.cnki.upcjess.2020.05.0003 |
| 分类号:F407.22 |
| 基金项目:国家社会科学基金项目(20BJY078);山东省社会科学规划数字山东研究专项(20CSDJ69) |
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| Import Safety Evaluation of Natural Gas in China Based on PSR Model |
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LI Hongxun, NIE Hui, WU Fudan
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(School of Economics and Management, China University of Petroleum(East China), Qingdao, Shandong 266580, China)
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| Abstract: |
| Natural gas has become one of our country 's main energy sources, and the safety, stability and sustainability of its supply are related to the country 's energy security. Insufficient natural gas supply, widening supply-demand gap, and increasing dependence on foreign countries will all affect the stable and sustainable supply of natural gas. Based on the PSR model,we construct our country 's natural gas import safety evaluation system, use the entropy weight method to determine the weight of each index, and evaluate the overall safety level of our country 's natural gas import through the TOPSIS method. We use the gray correlation analysis method to obtain the factors that affect our country 's natural gas import safety. The results show that:(1) The safety level of our country 's natural gas imports from 2006 to 2017 is roughly "U-shaped" with 2011 as the turning point, and is generally in a relatively unsafe and critically safe state. (2) From the perspective of three levels of relevant indicators, the biggest impacts of the correlation are geopolitical risks, LNG import prices, and natural gas reserves. Based on the evaluation results, we put forward the following suggestions: optimize the source of natural gas imports and reduce foreign dependence; build a natural gas trading center in the Asia-Pacific region to increase the voice of natural gas import prices; increase investment in natural gas exploration and development, and promote the exploitation of unconventional natural gas such as shale gas; establish and improve strategic natural gas reserves and improve the level of natural gas reserves. |
| Key words: PSR model import safety evaluation of natural gas entropy weight & TOPSIS method grey correlation analysis |
