| 摘要: |
| 天然气进口安全是国家能源安全的重要组成部分。从资源安全、政治安全、经济安全、运输安全4个层面选取12个指标,构建中国天然气进口安全综合评价指标体系,利用改进物元可拓模型,对2006—2018年天然气进口安全进行评价。研究表明:(1)中国天然气进口安全总体上历经很安全—安全—临界安全—不安全四种状态,但未来视角下有向好趋势。(2)资源安全是天然气进口安全的短板;政治及经济安全的波动变化给天然气进口安全带来了机遇和挑战;运输安全是天然气进口安全的关键。为此中国应从提高国内天然气供应能力和利用效率、合理布局进口气源和通道、开展大国博弈以降低进口成本等方面来保证天然气供应的长期性、稳定性和可靠性。 |
| 关键词: 天然气进口 安全评价 指标体系 改进物元可拓模型 |
| DOI：10.13216/j.cnki.upcjess.2020.06.0002 |
| 分类号:F407.22 |
| 基金项目:教育部人文社会科学研究项目(18YJA810001)；山东省社会科学规划项目和山东社会科学院创新工程项目(17CCXJ07)；中国石油大学(华东)企业社会责任研究基地资助项目(19CX05025B) |
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| China 's Natural Gas Import Security Assessment Based on Matter-element Extension Model |
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FAN Qiufang1, LUO Qianwen1, LIU Haomin1, XU Jinzhong2
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(1.School of Economics and Management, China University of Petroleum(East China), Qingdao, Shandong 266580, China;2.China National Oil and Gas Exploration and Development Co., Ltd., Beijing 100034, China)
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| Abstract: |
| Natural gas import security is an important part of energy security. By selecting 12 indexes from four levels of resource security, political security, economic security and transportation security, a comprehensive evaluation index system of China 's natural gas import security is constructed. The security of China 's natural gas import in 2006-2018 is evaluated through the establishment of matter-element extension model. The results show that:(1) China 's natural gas import security has generally undergone four states:very safe-safe-critical safe-unsafe. However, there is a positive trend from the perspective of the future. (2) Resource security is the short board of natural gas import security. The fluctuation of political and economic security brings opportunities and challenges to natural gas import security. Transportation security is the key to the safety of natural gas import. Countermeasures should be taken in China from the aspects of enhancing natural gas supply capacity and utilization efficiency, optimizing natural gas import sources, developing big country game to reduce import cost, so as to guarantee the sustainability and stability of natural gas supply in China. |
| Key words: natural gas import security assessment index system matter element extension model |
