| 摘要: |
| 基于中国1953—2010年石油自给量、消费量的数据,可建立相应的ARIMA(p,d,q)模型,预测未来中国石油自给量、消费量以及石油对外依存度。中国应加强国内勘探,努力提高石油自给量;加强科技支持,老油田努力增加贡献;加大“走出去”步伐,保证国内石油供应;加快“替代品”研发,减少中国经济社会对石油的依赖;建立包括全新的能源结构、能源生产方式和能源应用为内容的、带有根本性变革的能源新常态的新能源体系。 |
| 关键词: 自给与需求 时间序列 预测 石油安全 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:F407.22 |
| 基金项目:中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(R090629B) |
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| Analysis of Oil SelfSustaining Quantity and Rustic Options of Oil Supply Security in China |
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ZHANG Chuanping, ZHAO Ruirui, YAN Xueping, FU Chongchang
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(College of Economics & Management, China University of Petroleum, Qingdao, Shandong 266555, China)
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| Abstract: |
| Based on the data of China 's oil selfsustaining quantity and oil consumption from 1960 to 2010, we can establish the corresponding ARIMA (p, d, q) model to predict China 's oil selfsustaining quantity, consumption and external dependence and propose the views:strengthen domestic exploration and try to improve the amount of oil selfsufficiency; strengthen scientific and technical support and make efforts increase the contribution of old oil fields; expand the "going out" pace to ensure the domestic oil supply; accelerate the research and development of "substitutes" to reduce the dependence of China 's economy and society on oil; and establish a new energy system, including a energy new normal with the contents of new energy structure, energy production mode and energy use as well as essential transformation. |
| Key words: selfsufficiency and demand time series prediction oil security |
