| 摘要: |
| 为评价中国石油安全水平,选取储采比、储量替换率、石油消费对外依存度、三大市场平均原油价格、石油消耗强度、石油在能源消费中所占比重6大主导因素作为评价指标,以2000—2010年中国石油相应统计数据作为样本,采取主成分分析法进行综合评价。结果表明,各指标对中国石油安全度的影响权重分别为0.28、0.27、0.10、0.13、0.12、0.10。2000—2010年中国石油安全度总体在0.54～0.64之间波动,处于“弱安全”和“不安全”状态。当前,随着石油需求的增加,石油安全形势依然非常严峻,中国应采取切实措施确保石油安全。 |
| 关键词: 石油安全 主成分分析 石油需求 综合评价 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:F407.22 |
| 基金项目:黑龙江省哲学社会科学研究专项项目(10D028) |
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| Research on Evaluation of Petroleum Security in China Based on Principal Components Analysis |
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LI Fengsheng, ZHAO Junping, DONG Jintao
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(Petroleum Economics and Management Institute, Northeast Petroleum University, Daqing, Heilongjiang 163318, China)
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| Abstract: |
| Six main factors are selected as evaluation index in order to evaluate the level of Chinese oil security. The evaluation index is reserve-production ratio, reserve replacement rate, external dependence on oil consumption, the three big market average price of crude oil, oil consumption intensity, oil accounts for the proportion of energy consumption. Petroleum corresponding statistical data are selected as the sample from 2000 to 2010 in China. The principal components analysis is used for comprehensive evaluation, which showed that the weight of each index influenced China 's petroleum safety is respectively 0.28,0.27,0.10,0.13,0.12,0.10. China petroleum security degree fluctuated between 0.54-0.64 during the period of 2000-2010, which was in a state of "weak" and "unsafe". At present, oil security situation is still very grim with the increase in oil demand. Measures should be taken to ensure oil security in China. |
| Key words: oil security principal components analysis oil demand comprehensive evaluation |
