| 摘要: |
| 实施中部崛起战略是促进中国区域经济协调发展的重要举措。为验证政策效果,将中部崛起战略实施视为一次“准自然实验”,采用双重差分模型识别中部崛起战略对地区经济发展的因果效应以及评估政策的有效性。研究表明,中部崛起战略促进了中部地区经济增长,此结论在剔除样本检验和反事实检验中得到进一步验证,并且这种政策实施效果通过技术创新的中介效应产生。进一步研究发现,技术创新通过加快工业部门产业结构转型升级、推动农业规模化和产业化、充分发挥城镇化集聚效应等途径促进中部地区经济增长。 |
| 关键词: 中部崛起 双重差分模型 反事实检验 经济增长 政策效果评估 |
| DOI：10.13216/j.cnki.upcjess.2021.05.0005 |
| 分类号:F127 |
| 基金项目:教育部人文社会科学研究基金项目(19YJCZH058);安徽财经大学研究生科研基金(ACYC2019148) |
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| Has the Strategy of the Rise of Central China Driven the Rise of Central China? Mediating Effect Analysis Based on Technology Innovation |
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HUANG Dunping, FANG Jian
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(School of Economics, Anhui University of Finance and Economics, Bengbu, Anhui 233030, China)
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| Abstract: |
| The implementation of the strategy of the rise of central China is an important measure to promote the coordinated development of regional economy in China. To verify the policy effect, the implementation of the strategy of the rise of central China is regarded as a "quasi-natural experiment" and the double-difference model (DID) is used to identify the causal effect of the policies supporting the rise of central China on regional economic development and evaluate the effectiveness of the policies. The research shows that the policies supporting the rise of the central region promote the economic growth of the central region. This conclusion is further verified in the elimination sample test and counterfactual test, and the implementation effect of such policies is generated through the intermediary effect of technological innovation. Further research shows that technological innovation will promote economic growth in central China by accelerating the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure in industrial sectors, promoting large-scale agriculture and industrialization, and giving full play to the agglomeration effect of urbanization. |
| Key words: rise of Central China double difference models counterfactual test economic growth policy effect evaluation |
