| 摘要: |
| 作为实现温室气体减排的重要手段,碳中和对能源投资起到了一定的影响。在对100篇中国对外能源投资相关论文分析的基础上,利用狄利克雷主题模型挖掘得出6项指标,并引入CO2排放强度和能源强度构建能源投资指标体系。选取2009—2018年35个“一带一路”沿线国家的能源投资及相应指标数据,首先基于描述性统计与相关性分析验证回归分析可行性,然后选择面板数据负二项模型进行实证结果检验,最后通过缩短时间窗口的稳健性检验方法,进行“一带一路”倡议提出后样本的敏感性测试。结果显示:(1)能源投资的影响指标包括能源生产力、贸易开放程度、GDP、制造业占GDP比重、劳动力和基础设施水平,其中东道国的经济状况,如GDP、贸易开放程度以及基础设施水平对中国能源投资影响并不显著,这是由中国能源投资战略导向造成的；(2)在碳中和背景下,“一带一路”沿线各国最终要实现一年内CO2排放量和吸收量的平衡就必然要降低碳排放强度和能源强度,CO2排放强度降低正向促进中国对该国的能源投资,能源强度降低则相反,且能源强度对能源投资的影响更大,因此“碳中和”目标的提出对当前中国能源投资结构影响较大。基于此,建议能源企业应加大新能源投资和合同规模比例,大力发展新能源业务,同时提高能源效率,深化技术改革；此外还需加强风险识别,提高项目风险甄别能力;要更加注重社会责任管理,积极开展植树造林等环保活动。 |
| 关键词: 碳中和 能源投资 环境治理 LDA模型 负二项回归模型 |
| DOI：10.13216/j.cnki.upcjess.2022.03.0001 |
| 分类号:X321;F832.48 |
| 基金项目:中国石油天然气集团有限公司软科学研究项目 (中油研202002015) |
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| The Impact of the Environment of the B&R Countries on China 's Energy Investment Strategy Within Carbon Neutrality Context |
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NIE Zhengya1, LIU Zhiting2, LIU Wenzhi2, LI Shufeng3
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(1.International Department, China National Petroleum Corporation, Beijing 100007, China;2.School of Economics and Management, China University of Petroleum (East China), Qingdao 266580, Shandong, China;3.China National Oil and Gas Exploration and Development Corporation, Beijing 100034, China)
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| Abstract: |
| As an important means to achieve greenhouse gas emission reduction, carbon neutrality also has a certain impact on energy investment. Therefore, based on 100 papers on China 's foreign energy investment, this paper uses the Latent Dirichlet Allocation topic model to mine six indicators, and introduces CO2 emission intensity and energy intensity to build an energy investment index system. Then, based on the energy investment and corresponding index data of 35 Belt and Road (B&R) countries from 2009 to 2018, the feasibility of regression analysis was verified based on descriptive statistics and correlation analysis, and the negative binomial model of panel data was selected to test the empirical results. Finally, a robustness test method with a shortened time window was used to test the sensitivity of samples since the Belt and Road Initiative was proposed. The empirical results suggest that:(1) The impact indicators of energy investment include:the energy productivity, trade opening, GDP, proportion of manufacturing in GDP, labor force and infrastructure level. The economic conditions of the host country, such as GDP, trade openness and infrastructure level, have no significant impact on China 's energy investment, which is caused by the strategic orientation of China 's energy investment. (2) Under the background of "carbon neutrality", B&R countries have to cut carbon emission intensity and energy intensity to achieve a balance between CO2 emissions and absorption on a yearly basis. The decreasing CO2 emission intensity contributes to China 's energy investment in the target country while the decreasing energy intensity does the contrary, exercising more influence on energy investment. Therefore, the proposal of "carbon neutrality" has a great impact on China 's energy investment structure. In light of this, energy enterprises should increase the proportion of new energy investment and the number of contracts, vigorously develop new energy businesses, improve energy efficiency and deepen technological reform. In addition, it is necessary to strengthen risk identification, enhance the ability to identify risk projects, highlight socially responsible management, and actively carry out afforestation and other environmental protection activities. |
| Key words: carbon neutrality energy investment environmental governance LDA model negative binomial regression model |
