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气候变化风险的系统不确定性及其规范因应
杜健勋,黄一帆
(西南政法大学 经济法学院,重庆 401120)
摘要:
风险的实证主义和相对主义揭示了气候变化风险的系统不确定性,气候变化风险互联、级联影响的系统化倾向及其在生成结构、发展过程、影响受体上的不确定性,对气候变化风险的规范因应提出了挑战。现有政策和法律体系为气候变化风险的应对提供了初步的规范基础,而渐趋停滞的气候变化综合立法、分散游离的气候变化相关立法、政策与法律的发展不均衡,又显示出气候变化风险因应规范体系应对系统不确定性的困境。在此双重背景下,气候变化风险的规范因应须重新审视气候变化的风险特征与规范路径,明晰系统不确定性对规范因应协同性、社会性、动态性的功能期待,以及系统不确定性下规范体系政策和法律交织的应然架构。在此基础上,通过气候变化风险因应政策话语的法制转译,实现气候变化风险因应既有规范架构的系统优化,进而通过抽象性和实施性政策的协同转化、政策法律化限度判断的民意考量、政策法律化主体和结构的动态调整,实现对气候变化风险系统不确定性的功能回应。
关键词:  碳达峰碳中和  系统性风险  不确定性  政策法律化
DOI:10.13216/j.cnki.upcjess.2023.06.0010
分类号:D912.6
基金项目:国家社会科学基金西部项目(21XFX002);西南政法大学校级科研创新项目(2022XZXS-049)
Systemic Uncertainty and Normative Responses to Climate Change Risk
DU Jianxun, HUANG Yifan
(Economic Law School, Southwest University of Political Science and Law, Chongqing 401120, China)
Abstract:
The positivism and relativism of risk reveal the systematic uncertainty of climate change risk, and the systematic tendency of climate change risk to interconnect and cascade impacts, as well as its uncertainty in the structure of generation, the process of development,and the recipients of impacts, have posed a challenge to the normative response to climate change risk. The existing policy and legal system has provided an initial normative basis for climate change risk response, while the stagnant comprehensive climate change legislation, the fragmented climate change-related legislation, and the uneven development of policy and law show the dilemma of the climate change risk response normative system in coping with systematic uncertainty. Against this dual background, the normative response to climate change risks must reexamine the risk characteristics and normative path of climate change, and clarify the functional expectations of systematic uncertainty for synergistic, social, and dynamic normative response, as well as the apodictic structure of the normative system that interweaves policy and law under systematic uncertainty. On this basis, the systematic optimization of the existing normative framework of climate change risk response should be realized through the legal translation of the policy discourse on climate change risk response, and then the functional response to the systematic uncertainty of climate change risk should be realized through the synergistic transformation of abstract and implementable policies, the public opinion 's consideration of the judgment of the limit of legalization of policies, and the dynamic adjustment of the main body and structure of legalization of policies.
Key words:  emission peak and carbon neutralization  systemic risk  uncertainty  legalization of policy 英文编校:杨 欣