| 摘要: |
| 要探究数字经济与城市碳排放的复杂性与动态性关系,需要科学认知系统内在演化规律和要素间相互作用。在剖析二者系统耦合机制基础上,融合数字经济在社会、产业及能源要素中对碳排放的多维影响路径,构建数字经济—城市碳排放系统动力学模型,并以青岛市为例进行仿真模拟。研究发现:数字经济通过产业结构优化、能源结构转型、能源强度降低及居民用能行为引导四条路径协同作用,可以显著降低城市碳排放量、碳排放强度与能源消费总量,其中能源结构转型为核心减排路径。情景模拟显示:平衡发展情景兼具最大减排效能与路径稳健性。基于此,建议城市应推动能源数字化转型,加强产业数字化与能源效率协同,建立碳排放双控机制与数字核算体系。 |
| 关键词: 数字经济 碳排放 减排路径 系统动力学 多情景模拟 |
| DOI：10.13216/j.cnki.upcjess.2026.04.0002 |
| 分类号:F49;X321 |
| 基金项目:青岛市哲学社会科学规划项目(QDSKL2301135)；山东省高等学校青创科技支持计划项目(2024KJL011) |
|
| Research on System Simulation and Scenario Analysis of Urban Carbon Emission Reduction Driven by Digital Economy |
|
ZHANG Feifei, REN Xingdong
|
|
(School of Management Engineering, Qingdao University of Technology, Qingdao 266520, Shandong, China)
|
| Abstract: |
| To explore the complexity and dynamics of the relationship between the digital economy and urban carbon emissions, it is essential to scientifically understand the inherent evolutionary mechanisms of the system and the interactions among its components. Based on an analysis of the coupling mechanism between the digital economy and urban carbon emissions, this study integrates the multidimensional impact pathways of the digital economy on carbon emissions through social, industrial, and energy-related factors. A system dynamics model of the digital economy-urban carbon emissions system is constructed and applied to Qingdao City for simulation analysis. The results indicate that the digital economy can significantly reduce urban carbon emissions, carbon emission intensity, and total energy consumption through four synergistic pathways:industrial structure optimization, energy structure transformation, energy intensity reduction, and guidance of residents energy consumption behaviors. Among these pathways, energy structure transformation serves as the core pathway for emission reduction. Scenario simulations reveal that the balanced development scenario achieves both the greatest emission reduction effectiveness and the highest robustness of implementation pathways. Accordingly, this study suggests that cities should promote the digital transformation of energy systems, enhance the synergy between industrial digitalization and energy efficiency improvement, and establish dual-control mechanisms for carbon emissions alongside digital accounting systems. |
| Key words: digital economy carbon emissions emission reduction pathways system dynamics multi-scenario simulation 英文编校:马志强 |
