| 摘要: |
| 基于2005—2019年中国278个地级市面板数据,运用多期双重差分(DID)模型考察碳交易试点政策对试点地区产业结构升级的作用机制。研究结果表明,碳交易试点政策显著推动试点地区产业结构升级,该结论在一系列稳健性检验后仍然成立；机制分析揭示,绿色技术创新和绿色金融发展水平提升均为碳交易试点政策促进地区产业结构升级的有效路径；异质性分析发现,碳交易试点政策对东部地区及工业基地城市产业结构升级的促进作用更显著；进一步分析发现,政策通过辐射效应促进地理毗邻的非试点地区产业结构升级,但对试点地区自身产业结构升级的影响存在时间滞后性。 |
| 关键词: 碳交易试点政策 产业结构升级 多期双重差分模型 |
| DOI：10.13216/j.cnki.upcjess.2026.04.0004 |
| 分类号:F062.1 |
| 基金项目:国家社会科学基金项目(23BJY102) |
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| Can Carbon Trading Pilot Policies Promote Industrial Structure Upgrading?:An Empirical Study Based on Multi-period DID Model |
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HUO Jianglin,YAN Qikun
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(School of Economics and Management, China University of Petroleum (East China), Qingdao 266580, Shandong, China)
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| Abstract: |
| Based on panel data from 278 prefecture-level cities in China from 2005 to 2019, this study employs a multi-period Difference-in-Differences model to systematically examine the impact mechanism of the carbon trading pilot policy on the upgrading of industrial structure in pilot regions. The research results indicate that the carbon trading pilot policy significantly promotes the upgrading of industrial structure in the pilot regions, and this conclusion holds even after a series of robustness tests. Mechanism analysis reveals that corporate green technological innovation and regional green financial development are two effective pathways through which carbon trading pilot policies facilitate industrial structure upgrading. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the policy has a more significant promoting effect on the industrial structure upgrading of eastern regions and industrial base cities. Further analysis reveals that the policy promotes the industrial structure upgrading of geographically adjacent non-pilot areas through spillover effects. Additionally, there is a time lag in the policy 's impact on the industrial structure upgrading of pilot regions themselves. |
| Key words: carbon trading pilot policy industrial structure upgrading multi-period difference-in-differences model 英文编校:马志强 |
