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成品油现行定价机制与成品油市场平衡关联研究
李治国,齐素素,韩程
(中国石油大学 经济管理学院,山东 青岛 266580)
摘要:
石油作为不可再生的重要战略能源,与国民经济和能源安全密切相关。尤其近两年国际石油价格剧烈波动,研究成品油价格机制与市场平衡对国民经济平稳运行具有十分重要的意义。利用古诺模型对现行成品油定价机制与成品油市场平衡之间的关联进行分析,发现在当前寡头垄断的市场环境下,2016年1月定价机制调整中设置的每桶130美元和40美元的上下限是比较合理的,有利于促进成品油市场平衡。在此基础上用灰色关联分析法构建成品油市场均衡评价体系,对成品油定价机制调整前后成品油市场的变化进行动态分析表明,中国目前的寡头垄断环境是不合理的,唯有打破垄断、引入市场竞争机制,才能实现成品油市场有效率均衡。中国应建立合理的市场竞争机制、加快推进石油期货上市、深化改革,以实现成品油完全市场化定价。
关键词:  成品油定价机制  寡头垄断  灰色关联分析法  市场平衡
DOI:10.13216/j.cnki.upcjess.2017.04.0002
分类号:F407.22
基金项目:中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(15CX05005B);山东省高校科研发展计划项目(J16WE07);山东省社科联人文社会科学课题(16-ZZ-JJ-14);山东省统计科研课题(KT16110)
Research on the Relationship Between the Existing Pricing Mechanism and the Market Equilibrium of Refined Oil
LI Zhiguo, QI Susu, HAN Cheng
(School of Economics and Management, China University of Petroleum, Qingdao, Shandong 266580, China)
Abstract:
As an important strategic non-renewable energy, oil is closely related to the national economy and energy security. Given the fluctuations of the international oil price in the last two years,the study of the pricing mechanism and the market equilibrium of refined oil isvery significant for the smooth running of national economy.The research of the relationship between the existing pricing mechanism and the market equilibrium of refined oilbased on Cournot model shows that under the oligopoly condition, the adjustment of the pricing mechanism with $130 per barrel as the upper limit and $40 per barrel as the lower limit is reasonable and conducive to the promotion of balanced oil market.On this basis, a balanced evaluation system of refined oil market is built using gray correlation analysis and the dynamic changes of refined oil market before and after the adjustment of the refined oil pricing mechanism is analyzed. It concludes that China 's current monopoly environment is not suitable and that only to break the monopoly and introduce the market competition mechanism can the effective equilibrium of the refined oil market be achieved. Accordingly, this paper puts forward the suggestions of establishing reasonable market competition mechanism,accelerating the listing of oil futures, and deepening the reform to achieve the market price of refined oil.
Key words:  refined oil pricing mechanism  oligopoly  grey correlation analysis  market equilibrium