| 摘要: |
| 山东省作为中国经济大省,已经取得了显著的经济发展成就,但能源-经济-环境复合系统的协调发展问题已经成为制约山东省可持续发展的瓶颈。应用系统动力学理论和方法,可确定主要指标及指标间的量化关系,构建并验证山东省3E系统动态仿真模型,对山东省3E系统协调进行仿真预测。研究发现,在当前经济发展模式下,山东省能源对外依存度将日趋严峻,经济发展结构将失衡,环境治理压力将日趋加大。 |
| 关键词: 系统动力学 能源-经济-环境 协调发展 仿真研究 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:N945.12 |
| 基金项目: |
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| A Study of Coordinated Development Model and Simulation of Shandong Energy-Economy-Environment System Based on System Dynamics |
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ZHANG Haiyun
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(College of Economics & Management, China University of Petroleum, Qingdao, Shandong 266555, China)
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| Abstract: |
| Shandong province has gained significant economic development as an important economic province in China, while the coordinated development of energy-economy-environment system has become the bottleneck problem of sustainable development in Shandong province. The theories and principles of system dynamics are used to determine the key indicators and quantitative relationships among the indicators, establish and test a system dynamics model on 3E system. And then using the model simulates Shandong 's 3E system coordinated development situations. The results show that the dependence on foreign energy will become more and more serious, the structure of economy will go unbalanced, and the stress of environmental governance will increasingly intensify. |
| Key words: system dynamics energy-economy-environment coordinated development simulation study |
