| 摘要: |
| 采用2001年1月至2014年10月国际石油价格和中国石油进口量的月度数据,运用结构向量自回归模型分析国际油价波动对中国石油进口的影响。结果显示,油价与石油进口之间存在正相关关系和双向格兰杰因果关系,且油价对进口的影响远大于进口对价格的影响。目前国际油价跌势迅猛,石油大量进口不会造成油价反弹,因此,中国应充分利用这次油价下跌的进口契机扩充石油战略储备,石油企业应进行资源整合并实现战略转型。 |
| 关键词: 国际油价波动 石油进口 结构向量自回归模型 石油储备 |
| DOI：10.13216/j.cnki.upcjess.2015.05.0001 |
| 分类号:F062.1 |
| 基金项目:国家社会科学基金项目(14BJL045);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(15CX08012A);东营市社科联资助项目(DYSK(2015)第12号) |
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| Analysis of the Relationship Between International Oil Price Fluctuation and China Oil Import |
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GAO Xinwei, JIANG Zhaolong, JI Yao
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(School of Economics and Management, China University of Petroleum, Qingdao, Shandong 266580, China)
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| Abstract: |
| Based on the average international oil price month data and China oil import month data from January, 2001 to October, 2014, this paper studies the econometric relationship between oil price and China oil import by using the structural vector auto regression model. The result shows that there exists positive correlation and a two-way Granger causality relationship between oil price and China oil import and oil price fluctuation has a greater influence on China oil import than that of China oil import on oil price. Since recently international oil price has dropped sharply and oil import in large scale will not cause oil price to rebound, we should take chance to increase oil import and to enlarge oil reserve, which also gives China oil enterprise a good change to implement resource integration and strategic transformation. |
| Key words: international oil price fluctuation oil import structural vector auto regression model oil reserve |
