| 摘要: |
| “一带一路”倡议重在推动沿线国家进行高水平的经济融合,其重点在于明确各国家在贸易网络中的地位、角色及结构韧性。以“一带一路”沿线65个国家为研究对象,基于复杂网络理论,对国家间贸易网络结构进行模体检测,通过识别网络中重要模体和关键节点,对节点和三元模体国家进行中断模拟。结果表明:“一带一路”贸易网络呈现“小世界”特征,具有较高的连通性和网络凝聚力；“一带一路”贸易网络模体检测中,中国和波兰扮演了对外贸易的角色,土耳其扮演了贸易中转站的角色,俄罗斯和印度扮演了贸易输入国的角色,互惠性模式在贸易关系中有至关重要的作用；模体失效比国家节点失效对网络结构韧性的影响更大,且由中国、土耳其和俄罗斯组成的模体对贸易网络结构韧性影响是最大的。 |
| 关键词: “一带一路” 贸易网络 模体特征 网络结构韧性 |
| DOI：10.13216/j.cnki.upcjess.2021.04.0006 |
| 分类号:F742 |
| 基金项目:国家社会科学基金一般项目 (20BTJ028) |
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| Research on Structural Resilience of Trade Network of the Countries Along the Belt and Road |
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WANG Yan, LU Lan
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(College of Economics, Qingdao University, Qingdao, Shandong 266100, China)
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| Abstract: |
| The Belt and Road initiative aims at promoting high-level economic integration among countries along the route and focuses on clarifying the status, role and structural resilience of each country in the trade network. In this paper, 65 countries along the Belt and Road are taken as the research objects to examine the motifs of the trade network structure among countries based on the complex network theory, and disruption simulation is used for the identified important motifs and key nodes in the network. The results are as follows:Firstly, the Belt and Road trade network has the characteristics of "small world" and has high connectivity and network cohesion. Secondly, the results of motif detection shows that in the Belt and Road trade network, China and Poland have played the role of export country nodes, Turkey has played the role of trade transfer station, Russia and India act as trade importing country nodes, and the reciprocal pattern plays a vital role in trade relations. Finally, the failure of the motifs has a greater impact than the country node on the structural resilience of the network, and the failure of the motif composed of China, Turkey and Russia has the greatest impact on the structural resilience of the trade network. |
| Key words: the Belt and Road trade network motif feature network structural resilience |
