| 摘要: |
| 可再生能源配额制是中国实现低碳能源转型的强制性制度变革,该政策在电力市场的基础上衍生出了绿色证书交易市场。根据中国实际情况研究绿色证书交易市场对电力市场的作用机制,并对其运行效果进行仿真模拟,有利于该市场的有效建立。基于一般均衡理论,结合电力市场的特点以及电力与绿色证书交易市场之间的相互作用,构建发电厂商之间的双寡头非合作博弈模型;利用Vensim软件仿真模拟不同绿色证书基准价格、可再生能源配额比例和罚金组合对双寡头博弈均衡、电力结构和社会福利的影响。结果表明:(1)绿色证书交易市场的建立使得可再生能源发电比例得到大幅度提升,优化了电源结构,提高了社会福利,不同绿色证书基准价格、可再生能源配额比例和罚金组合会导致双寡头博弈均衡,致使电力结构和社会福利发生变化;(2)可再生能源配额制的有效实施,不仅契合了国家调整经济结构、优化能源结构和保护资源环境的战略要求,而且有利于深化中国电力市场化改革和实现“政策-市场”共同作用的发展变迁;(3)为了更好地实施可再生能源配额制,需要设计出适合中国国情的绿色证书交易市场,加大电力体制改革力度,出台相关法律法规。 |
| 关键词: 绿色证书交易市场 电力市场 双寡头非合作博弈 系统动力学 |
| DOI：10.13216/j.cnki.upcjess.2022.02.0002 |
| 分类号:F426.61;X196 |
| 基金项目:国防科技工业核动力技术创新中心项目(HDLCXZX-2017-ZH-011) |
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| Green Certificate Trading Market and Quantitative Evaluation of Its Operation Effects |
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LIU Wenjun, ZHANG Lifang
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(School of Economics, Management and Law, University of South China, Hengyang 421001, Hunan, China)
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| Abstract: |
| Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) is a compulsory institutional change to achieve low-carbon energy transformation in China. The implementation of this policy has resulted in the green certificate trading market based on the electricity market. Studying the mechanism of the green certificate trading market on China 's actual electricity market, and simulating its operating effects are conducive to the effective establishment of the market. Based on the general equilibrium theory, this paper establishes a duopoly non-cooperative game model between power generation companies in light of the electricity market and the interplay between electricity and the green certificate trading market. The Vensim software is used to simulate the impacts of different green certificate benchmark prices, renewable energy quota ratios and penalty combinations on the duopoly game equilibrium, power structure and social welfare. The results show that:(1)With the establishment of the green certificate trading market, the proportion of renewable energy power generation has been greatly increased, the power supply structure has been optimized, and social welfare has been improved. The combination of different green certificate benchmark prices, renewable energy quota ratios and penalties will lead to a duopoly game equilibrium and changes in the power structure and social welfare. (2)The effective implementation of the renewable energy quota system not only conforms to the country 's strategic requirements for adjusting the economic structure, optimizing the energy structure and protecting the resources and environment, but also are conducive to deepening China 's power market reform and realizing the transformation triggered by both the policy and market. (3)In order to better implement the renewable energy quota system, it is imperative to design a green certificate trading market catering to China 's domestic environment, strengthen the reform of the power system, and introduce relevant laws and regulations to ensure the effective implementation of policies. |
| Key words: tradable green certificates system electricity market duopoly non-cooperative game system dynamics |
