| 摘要: |
| 天然气已成为全球主要消费能源之一,燃气企业及时了解天然气的市场动态,准确预测天然气消费量,并在此基础上设定相应的天然气调度和采购计划,对于企业降本增效尤为重要。在系统梳理天然气消费预测的时间范围、影响因素和相关方法演变历程的基础上,归纳总结天然气采购策略相关研究进展,发现基于精确天然气消费预测的采购策略对燃气企业经营具有重要影响,而当前这方面的研究还处于起步阶段。因此,结合企业实践提出了未来该领域主要研究方向和研究内容,并建议使用更多深度学习和组合模型来提高预测性能；此外,可将天然气消费预测与采购策略相结合,针对不同条件和情景设定企业的采购行为,最终形成完善的天然气采购策略。 |
| 关键词: 天然气 影响因素 消费预测 采购策略 |
| DOI：10.13216/j.cnki.upcjess.2023.04.0001 |
| 分类号:F416.22 |
| 基金项目:山东省社会科学规划重点项目(22BJJJ05);浙江能源天然气集团有限公司科技项目(ZNKJ-2022-052) |
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| Natural Gas Consumption Forecasting and Procurement Strategy: Research Review and Prospect |
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XU Xiaofeng1,CHEN You1,WANG Tao2,ZHOU Kai2,ZHU Songqiang3
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(1.School of Economics and Management, China University of Petroleum(East China), Qingdao 266580, Shandong, China;2.Zhejiang Energy Natural Gas Group Co., Ltd, Hangzhou 311500, Zhejiang, China;3.Zhejiang Provincial Energy Group Co., Ltd, Hangzhou 310007, Zhejiang, China)
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| Abstract: |
| As natural gas has become one of the major worldwide consumed energy sources, it is particularly important for natural gas sales companies to understand the market dynamics of natural gas in a timely manner, predict natural gas consumption accurately, and set up corresponding natural gas scheduling and procurement plans on this basis to reduce costs and increase efficiency. Based on a systematic review of the evolution of natural gas consumption forecasting in terms of time horizons, influencing factors and related methods, this paper summarizes the progress of the research on natural gas procurement strategies and finds that procurement strategies based on accurate natural gas consumption forecasting have an important impact on the operation of gas enterprises, and the current research in this field is still in its infancy. Therefore, the main research directions and contents of future research in this field are proposed in conjunction with enterprise practice, and more deep learning and combined models are suggested to improve prediction performance. In addition, gas consumption forecasting can be combined with procurement strategies to set enterprise procurement behaviors for different conditions and scenarios, and finally form a perfect natural gas procurement strategy. |
| Key words: natural gas influencing factors consumption forecast procurement strategies 英文编校:马志强 |
