| 摘要: |
| 在全球气候治理逐渐深化的背景下,中国“双碳”目标的实现需要应对能源安全、经济稳定与环境质量的多重挑战。基于综合评估模型,设置基准情景、碳中和情景、2℃情景和1.5℃情景,系统模拟了不同气候治理强度下中国能源-经济-环境系统的协同演进路径。研究结果显示:气候政策强度是驱动能源系统转型的决定性因素,碳中和情景下煤炭消费将急剧下降,而非化石能源消费则实现跨越式增长；碳减排与环境治理存在显著的协同效应,碳中和路径在实现深度碳减排的同时,可带来SO2与N2O等大气污染物的大幅协同下降；不同路径存在明显的成本效益差异,从基准情景转向碳中和路径处于“高效益区间”,而进一步追求1.5℃目标则进入边际效益递减的“高成本权衡区间”。系统量化的协同效应与路径权衡,可为探索中国碳中和目标下能源、环境与经济协同发展的稳健路径提供理论参考与决策借鉴。 |
| 关键词: 碳中和 气候治理 能源转型 综合评估模型 |
| DOI：10.13216/j.cnki.upcjess.2026.01.0006 |
| 分类号:X22;F426.2 |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(72321002) |
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| Synergistic Effects of Climate Governance:A Multi-Scenario Simulation Study of China 's Carbon Neutrality Pathways |
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WANG Zhaohua1,2,3, ZHANG Haotian1,2,3
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(1.School of Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology,Beijing 100081,China;2.of Digital Economy and Policy Intelligentization Key Laboratory of Ministry of Industry and Information Technology,Beijing 100081,China;3.Center for Sustainable Development and Smart Decision, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing 100081,China)
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| Abstract: |
| Currently,it is imperative to address multiple challenges related to energy security,economic stability,and environmental quality for achieving China 's "dual-carbon" goals of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality against the backdrop of deepening global climate governance.Based on an Integrated Assessment Model (IAM),this study simulates the synergistic evolution pathways of China 's energy-economic-environment (3E) system under varying climate governance intensities, setting four scenarios for the baseline,carbon neutrality,2°C and 1.5°C targets.The results indicate that the stringency of climate policies is the decisive factor driving the energy system transformation.Under the carbon neutrality scenario, coal consumption declines sharply,while non-fossil energy sources experience leapfrog growth.In addition,there is a significant synergistic effect between carbon emission reduction and environmental governance.The carbon neutrality pathway achieves deep decarbonization while simultaneously leading to substantial co-reductions in atmospheric pollutants such as SO2 and N2O.Moreover,notable cost-benefit differences are observed across different pathways.Transitioning from the baseline scenario to the carbon neutrality pathway falls within a high-efficiency zone,whereas pursuing the more ambitious 1.5℃ target enters a high-cost trade-off zone with diminishing marginal benefits.The systematic quantification of synergistic effects and pathway trade-offs in this study are anticipated to offer theoretical insights and decision-making references for exploring robust pathways that harmonize energy, environmental, and economic development under China 's carbon neutrality goal. |
| Key words: carbon neutrality climate governance energy transition Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) |
