| 摘要: |
| 俄乌冲突不仅重塑了全球天然气供需格局,也加剧了各国天然气贸易竞争,并可能影响贸易流动的机理。在此背景下,探究全球天然气贸易格局、贸易竞争演变对天然气供应安全以及国家经济发展的影响十分重要。基于复杂网络方法构建2013—2023年液化天然气(LNG)和管道天然气(PNG)进出口竞争网络,研究全球天然气竞争格局演变特征,识别出竞争网络的重要节点,并揭示俄乌冲突对国家和地区之间竞争格局的影响。结果显示:近10年LNG和PNG的进出口竞争格局发生了巨大变化；俄乌冲突加剧了欧洲内部及其与其他地区的LNG进口和PNG出口竞争,中国、日本和韩国等亚洲国家为LNG进口的主要竞争力量,美国LNG出口竞争逐渐增强；俄乌冲突使得全球天然气竞争格局更为复杂,区域性竞争更加激烈。 |
| 关键词: 液化天然气 管道天然气 竞争格局 复杂网络 |
| DOI：10.13216/j.cnki.upcjess.2026.02.0001 |
| 分类号:F416.22; F746 |
| 基金项目:国家社会科学基金重点项目(23AZD071)；国家社会科学基金重大项目(23&ZD093) |
|
| The Evolution of Global Natural Gas Competition Landscape:From Globalization to Regionalization |
|
LI Haoran1,2, SUN Xiaolei3, ZHANG Haiying4, LIU Chang4
|
|
(1.Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China;2.School of Public Policy and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;3.School of Economics and Management, Beihang University, Beijing 100191, China;4.China Academy of Transportation Sciences, Beijing 100029, China)
|
| Abstract: |
| The globalization of natural gas trade has intensified competition among importing countries. Following the Russia-Ukraine conflict, this competition has further escalated, making it crucial to clarify the competitive landscape of natural gas trade for the security of supply and national economic interests. This study employs complex network methods to construct an import-export competition network for liquefied natural gas (LNG) and pipeline natural gas (PNG) from 2013 to 2023, analyzing the evolution of competition intensity among countries and regions. It also examines the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the competitive structure and identifies key nodes in the competition network. The results show that the import-export competition landscape of LNG and PNG has undergone significant changes over the past decade. Global LNG and PNG trade competition is concentrated within and between Europe, Asia, and Africa. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has intensified LNG import and PNG export competition within Europe and between Europe and other regions while reducing the intensity of LNG export competition. Asian countries such as China, Japan, and South Korea have become the main competitors in LNG imports, while the U.S. has gradually strengthened its position in LNG export competition. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has further complicated the global natural gas competition landscape and intensified regional competition. |
| Key words: liquefied natural gas (LNG) pipeline natural gas (PNG) competitive landscape complex networks |
