| 摘要: |
| 基于2012年社会核算矩阵(SAM),采用增加碳税模块的可计算一般均衡模型(CGE),构建了测算中国碳税政策影响的涵盖42个部门的动态递归CGE模型(其中包含4个化石能源生产部门和1个电力能源生产部门),以此来分析不同税率情境下碳税政策实施对我国国内生产总值(GDP)、能源消费和碳减排的动态影响。结果表明:征收碳税将对我国GDP造成负面影响,且随着税率的不断升高,GDP的下降率将不断增大。同时,碳税政策的实施使得高碳排放行业能源消费量明显减少,并提高了清洁能源的使用量,而总的二氧化碳减排量则随着税率的不断升高而逐渐增大。 |
| 关键词: 碳税 可计算一般均衡模型 能源消费 碳减排 |
| DOI：10.13216/j.cnki.upcjess.2020.01.0002 |
| 分类号:F224;F205 |
| 基金项目:国家优秀青年科学基金项目 (71622011);国家重点研发计划重点专项 (2016YFF0204405) |
|
| Impacts of Carbon Tax on China 's Economy and Environment Based on a CGE Model |
|
TANG Ling, ZHANG Liang, YU Le 'an
|
|
(School of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Chemical Technology, Beijing 100029, China)
|
| Abstract: |
| A dynamic recursive computable general equilibrium (CGE) modelis conducted by introducing a carbon tax module to estimate the impacts of carbon tax on China 's economy and environment. The model contains 42 sectors, including 4 fossil energy sectors and 1 electricity sector. Based on the 2012 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM), this model is used to investigate the dynamic impact of carbon tax policies on China 's GDP, energy consumption, and carbon emissions under different taxation scenarios respectively. Simulation results indicate that taxation of carbon tax will have a negative impact on China 's GDP,and that the rate of decline in GDP will continue to increase with the increase of tax rate.Meantime, the implementation of carbon tax policy has significantly reduced energy consumption in high-carbon emission industries and increased the use of clean energy, and the total carbon dioxide emission reduction has gradually increased with the increase of tax rates. |
| Key words: carbon tax policy computable general equilibrium (CGE) model energy consumption carbon emissions mitigation |
