| 摘要: |
| 碳中和目标下,中俄能源合作在促进经济增长与降低碳排放强度方面具有双重效应。基于2000—2022年数据,运用向量自回归(VAR)模型评估传统能源合作及“传统+新”能源合作模式对中俄两国GDP增长与CO2排放的影响。研究发现,传统能源合作对促进中国经济增长的贡献率低于俄罗斯,表明俄罗斯对传统能源的依赖性更强。引入新能源后,能源合作对两国的贡献率皆有所上升,经济驱动力增强,但俄罗斯对传统能源的依赖未根本改变。在环境方面,“传统+新”能源合作模式下的减排贡献率要高于传统能源合作模式,凸显新能源合作在推动碳中和目标实现中的重要作用。从长期看,传统能源合作的边际效益递减,而“传统+新”能源合作模式更具增长潜力,新能源贸易正成为合作重心。建议通过双边协议与专项基金深化“传统+新”能源合作,助力碳中和目标实现。 |
| 关键词: 碳中和目标 中俄新能源合作 经济效应 环境效应 VAR模型 |
| DOI：10.13216/j.cnki.upcjess.2026.02.0002 |
| 分类号:F426.2 |
| 基金项目:重庆市教委人文社会科学基金资助项目(21SKGH256) |
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| Research on the Effects of China-Russia Energy Cooperation under the Carbon Neutrality Target |
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ZOU Lina1, MU Chunfeng1, REN Qingzhong2
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(1.School of Economics and Finance, Chongqing University of Science and Technology, Chongqing 401331, China;2.School of Economics and Finance, Chongqing University of Technology, Chongqing 400054, China)
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| Abstract: |
| Under the carbon neutrality target, China-Russia energy cooperation exhibits a dual effect in promoting economic growth while reducing carbon emission intensity. Based on data from 2000 to 2022, this study employs the Vector Autoregression (VAR) model to evaluate the impacts of traditional energy cooperation and the "traditional plus new" energy cooperation model on GDP growth and CO2 emissions in both China and Russia. The findings indicate that the contribution of traditional energy cooperation to economic growth is lower in China than in Russia, suggesting Russia 's stronger reliance on conventional energy sources. Upon the introduction of new energy, the contribution rates of energy cooperation to both countries increase, with enhanced economic driving forces; however, Russia 's dependence on traditional energy remains fundamentally unchanged. In terms of environmental outcomes, the "traditional plus new" energy cooperation model demonstrates a higher emission reduction contribution rate than the traditional model alone, highlighting the significant role of new energy cooperation in advancing carbon neutrality. From a long-term perspective, the marginal benefits of traditional energy cooperation are diminishing, whereas the "traditional plus new" model shows greater growth potential, with new energy trade emerging as a focal point of bilateral cooperation. It is recommended to deepen the "traditional plus new" energy cooperation through bilateral agreements and special funds to facilitate the achievement of carbon neutrality goals. |
| Key words: carbon neutrality target China-Russia new energy cooperation economic effects environmental effects VAR model |
